John Abraham: Global warming and energy – intertwined problems in Africa

Kenya is training for tomorrow's technology leaders to deal with today's climate and energy problems

by John Abraham, "Climate Consensus - The 97%," The Guardian, January 12, 2014

A young girl in northern Kenya digs a hole in a river bed to retrieve water. Parts of Kenya are hit by drought as other areas get excessive rains. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Much of my work involves the design and installation of clean and robustenergy sources in remote parts of the world. On a recent trip to Kenya, my family had the opportunity to tour the Lake Naivasha region in Kenya. This region contains a treasure of wildlife and was a filming location for the movie "Out of Africa." During a boat ride, we witnessed the impacts on climate change – not through academic journal articles or conference presentations – but through people who see climate change with their own eyes.

In past years, Lake Naivasha had seen dramatic reductions in water level. The coastline had changed and plants and animals had adapted to a new normal. Recently, however, extreme rains have raised the waters approximately 4 meters according to our guide. The new waterline had submerged and killed beautiful Acacia trees. After conversations with many other Kenyans, it was apparent that the reliable wet-dry weather patterns had become more erratic; you didn't have to witness dying Acacia trees when farmers throughout the country told similar tales. Extreme weather swings were evident here before our eyes.

Flooding in Western Kenya, submerged buildings and Acacia trees.

Kenyan culture (and much of Africa) is deeply rooted in the patterns of weather and climate; much of their economy depends on agricultural production. That dependency has given them much clearer foresight than others about how to plan for the changed future.

The entirety of Kenya has awakened to the threats of climate change, including the government, agricultural sectors, energy industries and the educational system. My journey to learn more about Kenya's plans brought me to the beautiful and large Kenyatta University campus, just northeast of Nairobi. There, very new and quickly growing programs in mechanical engineering, energy and sustainability, and agricultural engineering are just a few of the programs training tomorrow's technology leaders to make an impact solving today's problems.

Among the many initiatives are goals to provide clean, renewable, and robust energy for the campus and the country. Some applications they are focusing on are wind-powered water-pumping systems. The plan is to design, manufacture, install, and service small-scale wind power systems that slowly pump water into elevated storage tanks throughout the day and night. Students, faculty, and staff draw the water is drawn down, typically during morning and evening hours. The prototype wind turbine will be adapted to manufacturing techniques used locally, near the university. It is hoped that wide-scale testing of the wind turbine system will occur over the next three years and thereafter, fast market penetration throughout Africa will be inevitable.

Another emerging technology coming from Kenyatta is the use of novel technologies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC). By using thermochemical sorption technologies, sometimes with solar heating, Dr. Jeremiah Kiplagat (recent recipient of the African Education Leadership Outstanding Professor Award) and his colleagues are setting the framework for improving the performance of refrigeration systems using these methodologies.

As a third example, a series of faculty-led student projects have been completed to develop solar concentrating and tracking systems for heat generation and photovoltaic power generation. The research teams have developed effective and simple means of moving reflecting mirrors and parabolic concentrators with the sun throughout the day to increase the amount of absorbed solar energy and increase the efficiency of the overall system.

While the faculty and staff are at the forefront in technology development projects such as these, much credit must be given to the administration. With implementation of new degrees such as doctoral programs in sustainability and masters programs in mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, engineering hydrology, and biomedical engineering, with a focus on solving the energy and health problems that are prevalent in the East African region, this university, and the country as a whole are destined to remain leaders in their geographical region.

It is clear from formal academic studies and from anecdotal evidence that developing countries that rely upon agriculture will suffer greatly from climate change in the coming decades. It is hence apparent that the solutions to climate change, such as accelerated implementation of clean and renewable power, must be implemented with great wisdom so that people in these regions are able to access the same low-cost electricity that other nations have enjoyed. In this regard, the climate-energy problem is often thought of as a double-edged sword – solutions to the climate problem make access to low-cost electricity more difficult.

Currently, the major source of energy in Kenya is hydropower. This is why the School of Engineering at Kenyatta University has also partnered with regional and international organizations to promote climate mitigation in water and energy sectors. An example is the research being carried out by Dr. Luke Olang in collaboration with IGAD climate center on developing a drought-monitoring tool for the greater horn of Africa in general. The same research team is also actively involved in water management strategies in the vulnerable Mara River Basin, considered a World Heritage site due to the Great Annual Wildebeest Migration.

What Kenyatta University is showing the world is that it is possible to solve both the energy and the climate problems together. Novel energy solutions using locally available technology and manufacturing techniques can build economies, provide low-cost energy, and preserve the future climate for our children. This type of systematic planning and dedication gives me hope that our future climate and energy problems can be solved.

Perhaps the vision is best expressed by Prof. Chris Shisanya, Dean School of Humanities and Social Sciences who told me,

"We at Kenyatta University have decided to prepare our students early enough during their study programmes to confront the challenges posed by climate change. We are now offering such courses as MSc. (Integrated Watershed Management) and MSc. (Climate Change and Sustainable Development), whose main focus is on adaptation to climate change. We believe that by exposing our students to such knowledge, they will be better equipped to help communities in Kenya's rural landscapes enhance their resilience to climate change impacts."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/12/global-warming-energy-intertwined-africa

5 links to more articles on climate change and Africa

Richard Rood's blog (December 9, 2010, entry: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=178) at wunderground contained the following links to information on climate change and Africa:

Climate variability and climate change: Impacts on Kenyan agriculture

A wonderful collection of stories on agriculture and climate change in Africa

Climate change as opportunity in Africa

Voice of America Coverage of African Climate Adaptation

Africa’s Growing Water Crisis

Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

Environ. Res. Lett. 5 (July-September 2010) 034005;   doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034005

Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

A. J. Koutsouris, G. Destouni, J. Jarsjö and S. W. Lyon*

Bert Bolin Centre for Climatic Research, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

*Correspondence e-mail: steve.lyon@natgeo.su.se

Received 4 June 2010, accepted 23 July 2010, published 6 August 2010

Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

Keywords:  Lake Victoria, Kenya, hydrology, water resource management, irrigation, climate change, hydro-climatic interaction

1. Introduction

Climatic changes are likely to threaten the Earth's already scarce water supply. Currently, about 40%, or 2.8 billion people, of the world population live in river basins with water scarcity. Improved water resource management is needed to help mitigate the potential influence of climatic changes and better utilize current water supplies. For example, about 1.6 billion people live in areas where the water scarcity has resource, developmental or economic reasons (UN 2008). Economic water scarcity occurs when a lack of financial, human or institutional capital causes incapacity to utilize better otherwise sufficient water resources. Lack of water produces negative effects on food security, health, gender equality and education making it both directly and indirectly connected with many of the United Nations' millennium development goals. As lack of financial capital also limits the capacity to import virtual water, which could otherwise compensate for physical water scarcity, water scarcity is thus primarily a crisis of the poor (UN 2006) that will be exacerbated under climatic changes.

For example, Kenya currently uses only 9% of its available water resources (e.g., water resources that would be exploitable if no financial constraints were present) while approximately 50% of the total population is below the national poverty line (UNDP 2008,Swallow et al. 2007). In addition, physical water scarcity often occurs seasonally in Kenya due to unevenly distributed rainfall throughout the year. This creates local water scarcity in many regions of Kenya due to a combination of economical and physical water scarcity. In the Kisumu district, located by Lake Victoria, 53% of the people live below the poverty line with an unreliable rainfall pattern identified as one of the main causes through its effects on food security (NCAPD 2005). Though the mechanisms behind the poverty levels in rural Kenya are more complex than a cause-and-effect relationship between rainfall and poverty, rainfall patterns may exacerbate existing poverty due to the simple fact that many in rural Kenya are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In the Kisumu district, approximately 90% of the population is dependent on agriculture for both food and income, causing a large part of the population to be affected directly by droughts and floods. Taken together with the strong seasonality in rainfall, the water resources in Kenya and the Kisumu district are quite sensitive to climatic trends. This is exemplified in Orongo village (figure 1) located in the Kisumu district. It is a typical rural, lowland floodplain area in Kenya and as such it is sensitive to the effects of rainfall variability and water management (Swallow et al. 2007). This makes Orongo village a focal point for the efforts of international assistance agencies (e.g., Engineers Without Borders) whose goals are to provide reliable and sustained water resources to the local population.

Figure 1. Site map showing the location of Lake Victoria and the spatial extent of the Lake Victoria drainage basin in Africa. The location of Orongo village near Kisumu is also indicated.

Climatic change may increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty, and both current and future effects of this uncertainty could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning. Planning for improved and more secure water availability relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour. Better scientific understanding of hydrological and climatic links, conditions and changes is thus a key issue for effective water resource management and its climate adaptation, in Orongo village as in other parts of the Lake Victoria region (Swallow et al 2008) and other regions of the world.

Our understanding of the coupled hydro-climatic system may be greatly hindered by limitations in data availability and quality. For instance, trends identified on a local scale may differ significantly from trends based on regional scale data (see, e.g., Pielke et al2002 considering temperature in eastern Colorado, USA). This study compares such trend results and exemplifies their water management implications on the basis of local scale data from the Orongo village and regional scale data from the whole Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB). The main aims of this analysis are to further investigate the prevalence of hydro-climatic trend differences on the basis of data with differing resolution and on different scales, and the propagation of such differences to important water management parameters, such as water storage requirements. In addition to such differences, this study also aims to investigate potential important consistencies in hydro-climatic system trend assessments, which are robust against the use of differently resolved and quantified data on different scales.

2. The study area and data set descriptions

2.1.  Regional scale: the Lake Victoria drainage basin

Lake Victoria is located in East Africa, southwest of Africa's horn (figure 1), from 31°39 'E to 34°53 'E longitude and 0°20 'N to 3°00 'S latitude. The lake is close to rectangular in shape with an area of around 67 000 km². The shoreline of the lake is divided between Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. The water surface level is typically 1140 m above sea level and the lake has a mean depth of 40 m with a maximum depth of around 80–90 m. The LVDB has a land area of about 194 000 km² (Tate et al 2004) and is inhabited by one of the densest and poorest rural populations of the world (UNESCO 2006), where many are subsistence farmers depending on rain-fed agriculture (Anyah et al 2008).

The climate in LVDB can be classified as equatorial with hot and humid conditions where the main climate drivers are easterly monsoons and the bimodal passing of the inter-tropical convergence zone (Anyah and Semazzi 2007). Mean annual precipitation is 1780 mm and mean annual evapotranspiration is 1537 mm (Nicholson et al 2000). Rainfall occurs mainly during two periods: the long rains in March, April and May; and the short rains in September, October and November. Severe droughts occur approximately every 3–4 years during the short rains, every 7–8 years during the hot dry season (December, January, and February), and every 5–8 years during the long rainy season (Awange et al 2008). Lake Victoria is mainly rain-fed with direct precipitation accounting for approximately 80% of the water inflow to the lake (Sutcliffe and Petersen 2007), and about 10% coming from five main tributaries, with the Kagera River being the main contributor. The remaining 10% comes from various small tributaries. The only significant outlet is the White Nile (Song et al 2004), where the outlet is regulated near Jinja pass (0°25 '21 ' 'N, 33°11 '45 ' 'E). Since 1954, discharge and lake levels have been regulated by the Nalubaale dam (formerly known as the Owen Falls dam).

Data series of temperature and precipitation values at the regional scale of the LVDB were compiled from the spatially distributed CRU TS 2.1 Global Climate Data Set (Mitchell and Jones 2005). Temperature and precipitation data were available for monthly time steps from 1901 to 2002. The spatial extent of LVDB was delineated in ArcGIS 9.3^® using the hydrology toolbox and the SRTM 90 digital terrain model (Jarvis et al 2008). Regional scale, basin averages of the annual time series of spatially distributed temperature and precipitation data were calculated for the entire LVDB. The temperature time series was then used to estimate annual actual evapotranspiration from the LVDB area (see the supplementary data available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/5/034005/mmedia). Annual discharge data for Lake Victoria at Jinja pass were obtained from the Global hydro-climatic data network data set (Dettinger and Diaz 2000).

2.2.  Local scale: Orongo village

Orongo village is located near the coast of Lake Victoria within Kenyan territory (figure 1). It is located east of the Winam Gulf and 6 km southeast of Kisumu, the third largest city in Kenya. Orongo village is characterized by pastures, homesteads and subsistence farming. The village has about 3000 inhabitants and an effective population density of 600 people per km² (Levicki 2005). Two rivers flank Orongo village: Luanda River in the southeast and Nyamasaria River in the northwest. These rivers have their origin in the Nandi Escarpments which serve as the main recharge area for the region, having elevations up to approximately 1900 m. The lower parts of this region make up a part of the Kano Plains. Elevation in this lower section, a characteristically lowland floodplain with flat topography and minimal slope, ranges between 1140 and 1300 m. The principal soil types in the Kano Plains are histosols and vertisols (Onyango et al 2005). The land cover in this area is dominated by marshlands and subsistence agriculture (with maize and millet as the main crops).

Water Resources Management Affairs, Kenya (WRMA), have conducted stream flow observations approximately 30 km northeast from Orongo village. This neighbouring watershed, called the Little Oroba watershed, is the closest reliable stream gauge for Orongo village. The outlet of the 54 km² Little Oroba watershed is located at 34°58 '15 ' 'E, 0°01 '40 ' 'N. Continuous stream flow data are available for daily intervals from 1932 to 1999. These observations were used to calculate a time series of the local scale average annual stream flow from 1932 to 1999. In addition, daily observations of pan evaporation and precipitation measurements are made near Kisumu by WRMA. Pan evaporation data were used to estimate actual evapotranspiration at this local scale (see the supplementary data available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/5/034005/mmedia). These time series were averaged to obtain average annual time series of evapotranspiration and precipitation over the periods of record. Note that the temperature data are collected by Kenya meteorological department at Kisumu, but that this data set was not available for consideration in this study.

3. Methods

3.1.  Hydro-climatic trend analysis

Simple linear regression was used to analyse the trends in the time series of hydro-climatic data collected at both the local scale and the regional scale. These data include observed precipitation and river discharge, and estimated actual evapotranspiration, which in turn depends on temperature, based on two different methods for the local scale and the regional scale assessments (see the supplementary data available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/5/034005/mmedia).

To allow for direct comparison between the different time series, linear regressions were applied to all the data and time series for the period 1968–1995. During this period, all hydro-climatic data have overlapping observation records at both the local scale and the regional scale. The present analysis thus facilitates a direct trend comparison between the local scale and the regional scale hydro-climatic observations and calculations.

3.2.  Use of trend analysis for water management

In order to exemplify the trend analysis use for concrete water management purposes, we estimated the minimum water storage requirement for an average farmer in the region using both regional scale and local scale data. Minimum storage requirement is defined here as the crop water required under standard climatic conditions. The method used to estimate minimum storage requirement was a sequent peak algorithm (Bouver 1978). The sequent peak algorithm is a graphical method based on the cumulative sum of precipitation surplus (PS) defined as inflow minus outflow and demand. Assuming that inflow is due primarily to direct precipitation, outflow is the water lost due to evaporation, and demand is the water transpired by crops (i.e., losses due to leakage and irrigation inefficiency are assumed relatively small and negligible), the cumulative sum of precipitation surplus PS can be estimated as

where P is precipitation and ET_a is the actual evapotranspiration (evaporation plus transpiration by crops) for each time step t over a record of observation that is n time steps in length. Note that as the demand and outflow may be larger than the inflow, P – ET_a may be negative.

The sequent peak algorithm is applied to create a time series of cumulative PS. By plotting such a time series, the first peak and the following sequent peak that is higher than the first peak can be identified. The difference between the first-peak value and the minimum value before the sequent peak in time is the water storage requirement for that particular period. This procedure is carried out for the whole record of data at all peaks, and the largest difference found is then the minimum storage required to ensure sufficient water availability. While fairly basic, the sequent peak algorithm provides at least a first-order estimate of water storage requirements, which is compared here between the different scale data for the example of the average farmer of the Orongo village of the Kisumu district.

4. Results

4.1.  Hydro-climatic trends

Considering the precipitation data at the regional scale (figure 2(A)) and local scale (figure 2(B)), neither time series indicates any significant linear trend for the period 1968–1995. If the entire record of data available at both spatial scales is considered, this result holds and neither time series indicates any significant linear trends. Similar to precipitation records, estimated actual evapotranspiration at the regional scale (figure 2(C)) and that at the local scale (figure 2(D)) show no significant linear trend during the period 1968–1995. Again this lack of significant linear trend holds when considering the entire length of record at both scales.

Figure 2. Time series of annual regional scale precipitation (A), actual evapotranspiration (C), and discharge (E) data, and local scale precipitation (B), actual evapotranspiration (D), and discharge (F) data considered in this study. Trend lines shown are fitted for the period 1968–1995, over which all hydro-climatic data are available at both spatial scales.

With regard to regional discharge, however, there is a significant (p  <  0.05) negative linear trend over the period 1968–1995, following a period of increasing discharge at the outlet of Lake Victoria from 1959 to 1964 (figure 2E). In 1964 the discharge peaks and shifts to the significant negative trend. This shift excludes the application of a meaningful single linear regression analysis over the entire period of discharge observation. These results are consistent with previous studies of Lake Victoria's lake levels, showing a water level increase that peaks in the early 1960s (see e.g. Piper et al 1986, Mistry & Conway 2003) and then a decrease through to 2005 (see e.g., Mangeni 2006, Awange et al 2008).

Furthermore, while the regional scale discharge data show a significant negative linear trend from 1968 to 1995, the local scale discharge data (figure 2(F)) at the Little Oroba gauging station indicate a significant (p  <  0.05) positive linear trend in discharge during the 1968–1995 period. This trend is also seen when considering the entire length of record.

4.2.  Water storage requirements

The largest water deficit estimate using the sequent peak algorithm based on the regional scale data occurs during the period 1999–2001 (figure 3). From this deficit, the estimated minimum storage requirement for an average farmer in the region is 205 mm. Using local scale data within the sequent peak algorithm, the largest water deficit occurs during the period 1989–1994, with a minimum storage requirement of 592 mm. That is, an estimated water storage requirement based on local scale data nearly three times as large as that based on regional scale data.

Figure 3. Results from the sequent peak algorithm using an annual time step. The difference between the two sets of paired dashed lines shows the difference in estimated storage requirement based on regional scale and local scale data.

These minimum storage assessments can further be used to estimate the number of irrigation ponds needed to meet the storage requirements of the average farmer in the Orongo village. For example, Engineers Without Borders assumes that a typical irrigation pond in this region should have the dimensions of 15 m × 20 m × 2 m or about 600 m³ of storage (Levicki 2009). Using this design recommendation, the regional scale estimate of minimum storage translates into a requirement of about two irrigation ponds per acre of agricultural land. Using the local scale data, however, four irrigation ponds per acre of agricultural land are needed. There is, thus, a large influence of the choice of spatial hydro-climatic data resolution on the practical water resource management and planning for the example of Orongo village in the Kisumu district.

The large difference in estimated storage requirements may be partly due to the use of two different methods for estimating actual evapotranspiration at the local scale and the regional scale (see the supplementary data available atstacks.iop.org/ERL/5/034005/mmedia). The use of different methods, however, is not an independent choice, but a necessity due to differences in data resolution and availability at the two scales. It is often the case that available data dictate which methods can be used to determine unobserved hydro-climatic parameters such as evapotranspiration for use in estimates of water storage requirements.

5. Discussion and conclusion

There is clear disparity between discharge observations at the regional and local scales considered in this study, leading to different hydrological trend assessments based on the data from the different scales. The present results further exemplify and quantify how this disparity leads to large differences in the essential parameter of water storage requirement for provision of reliable and sustained water resources.

The inherent influence of data resolution and scale on the choices of quantification methods for water resource management assessments, as discussed above for the evapotranspiration quantification, is not often considered. This is probably because real-world water resource managers must often make decisions regardless of data availability limitations. Still, it is important to consider the effects of these limitations and associated implicit assumptions and generalizations, when managers are confronted with serious water management and climate-adaptation problems. These effects may be significant for resulting decisions and designs of water resource management options, particularly in hydro-climatically sensitive regions.

In the present results, however, we have also seen one important consistent aspect of regional scale and local scale discharge data implications: during the period of significant trends in inter-annual hydrological discharge (even though the trends are opposite on the different data scales), there are no significant trends evident in the climate variables precipitation and evapotranspiration, with the latter in turn depending on temperature. This aspect indicates that neither the regional nor the local trends in the inter-annual discharge changes are currently climate driven. Rather, the current observed discharge trends are most probably connected to local and regional water use and land use changes. This is consistent with the major land use changes, such as deforestation and agricultural expansion, and population growth observed in Lake Victoria drainage basin (Odada et al 2009, Lung and Schaab 2010). This development is not homogeneous within the drainage basin and is mainly seen along rivers and in coastal areas (agricultural expansion and population growth) and in the tropical forest (deforestation). This supports the disconnection between climate trends and discharge trends due to local and regional water use and land use changes.

For example, the recent negative regional discharge trend may be an effect of water regulation and management practices at the Nalubaale dam. Direct quantification of the effects of dams and other local/regional water management practices are outside the scope of the present study. However, such effects have been investigated in detail and led to similar conclusions for other hydro-climatically sensitive parts of the world, such as the Central Asian region of the Aral Sea drainage basin (Shibuo et al 2007). In addition, locally driven changes in discharge, in the absence of observable changes in climatic variables, have also been observed in other hydrological catchments in eastern Africa, for instance in Ethiopia (Collick et al 2009).

While the current climatic trends show little direct influence on discharge trends (regardless of data resolution and scale), there is potential for future climate change to influence water availability in this region. Relevant identification of such large scale climate change effects must then be based on realistic assessments also of the water cycling effects of local/regional water use and land use, in hydrological catchments of scales that are consistent with the specific water management problems and decisions.

Link to rest of paper:  http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034005/fulltext

John Vidal, The Guardian: Kenya's droughts increase in frequency

'Climate change is here, it is a reality'

As one devastating drought follows another, the future is bleak for millions in east Africa. John Vidal reports from Moyale, Kenya

by John Vidal, The Guardian, September 3, 2009

One of the main water sources outside Moyale in Kenya runs dry. Photograph: Sarah Elliott/EPA

We met Isaac and Abdi, Alima and Muslima last week in the bone-dry, stony land close to the Ethiopia-Kenya border. They were with five nomad families who have watched all their animals die of star vation this year in a deep drought, and who have now decided their days of herding cattle are over.

After three years of disastrous rains, the families from the Borana tribe, who by custom travel thousands of miles a year in search of water and pasture, have unanimously decided to settle down. Back in April, they packed up their pots, pans and meagre belongings, deserted their mud and thatch homes at Bute and set off on their last trek, to Yaeblo, a village of near-destitute charcoal makers that has sprung up on the side of a dirt road near Moyale. Now they live in temporary "benders" – shelters made from branches covered with plastic sheeting. They look like survivors from an earthquake or a flood, but in fact these are some of the world's first climate-change refugees.

For all their deep pride in owning and tending animals in a harsh land, these deeply conservative people expressed no regrets about giving up centuries of traditional life when we spoke to them. Indeed, they seemed relieved: "This will be a much better life," said Isaac, a tribal leader in his 40s. "We will make charcoal and sell firewood. Our children will go to the army or become traders. We do not expect to ever go back to animals."

They are not alone. Droughts have affected millions in a vast area stretching across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Chad, and into Burkina Faso and Mali, and tens of thousands of nomadic herders have had to give up their animals. "[This recent drought] was the worst thing that had ever happened to us," said Alima, 24. "The whole land is drying up. We had nothing, not even drinking water. All our cattle died and we became hopeless. It had never happened before. So we have decided to live in one place, to change our lives and to educate our children."

Parched
Kenya, a land more than twice the size of Britain, is everywhere parched. Whole towns such as Moyale with more than 10,000 people are now desperate for water. The huge public reservoir in this regional centre has been empty for months and, according to Molu Duka Sora, local director of the government's Arid Lands programme, all the major boreholes in the vast semi-desert area are failing one by one. Earlier this year, more than 50 people died of cholera in Moyale. It is widely believed that it came from animals and humans sharing ever scarcer water.

Food prices have doubled across Kenya. A 20-litre jerrycan of poor quality water has quadrupled in price. Big game is dying in large numbers in national parks, and electricity has had to be rationed, affecting petrol and food supplies. For the first time in generations there are cows on the streets of Nairobi as nomads like Isaac come to the suburbs with their herds to feed on the verges of roads. Violence has increased around the country as people go hungry.

"The scarcity of water is becoming a nightmare. Rivers are drying up, and the way temperatures are changing we are likely to get into more problems," said Professor Richard Odingo, the Kenyan vice-chair of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

"We passed emergency levels months ago," said Yves Horent, a European commission humanitarian officer in Nairobi. "Some families have had no crops in nearly seven years. People are trying to adapt but the nomads know they are in trouble."

Many people, in Kenya and elsewhere, cannot understand the scale and speed of what is happening. The east African country is on the equator, and has always experienced severe droughts and scorching temperatures. Nearly 80% of the land is officially classed as arid, and people have adapted over centuries to living with little water.

There are those who think this drought will finish in October with the coming of the long rains and everything will go back to normal.

Well, it may not. What has happened this year, says Leina Mpoke, a Maasai vet who now works as a climate change adviser with Ireland-based charity Concern Worldwide, is the latest of many interwoven ecological disasters which have resulted from deforestation, over-grazing, the extraction of far too much water, and massive population growth.

"In the past we used to have regular 10-year climatic cycles which were always followed by a major drought. In the 1970s we started having droughts every seven years; in the 1980s they came about every five years and in the 1990s we were getting droughts and dry spells almost every two or three years. Since 2000 we have had three major droughts and several dry spells. Now they are coming almost every year, right across the country," said Mpoke.

He reeled off the signs of climate change he and others have observed, all of which are confirmed by the Kenyan meteorological office and local governments. "The frequency of heatwaves is increasing. Temperatures are generally more extreme, water is evaporating faster, and the wells are drying. Larger areas are being affected by droughts, and flooding is now more serious.

"We are seeing that the seasons have changed. The cold months used to be only in June and July but now they start earlier and last longer. We have more unpredictable, extreme weather. It is hotter than it used to be and it stays hotter for longer. The rain has become more sporadic. It comes at different times of the year now and farmers cannot tell when to plant. There are more epidemics for people and animals."

'We have to change'
Mpoke said he did not understand how people in rich countries failed to understand the scale or urgency of the problem emerging in places such as Kenya. "Climate change is here. It's a reality. It's not in the imagination or a vision of the future. [And] climate change adds to the existing problems. It makes everything more complex. It's here now and we have to change."

The current drought is big, but the nomads and western charities helping people adapt say the problem is not the extreme lack of water so much as the fact that the land, the people and the animals have no time to recover from one drought to the next. "People now see that these droughts are coming more and more frequently. They know that they cannot restock. Breeding animals takes time. It take several years to recover. One major drought every 10 years is not a problem. But one good rainy season is not enough," said Horent.

Nor are traditional ways of predicting and adapting to drought much use. In the past, said Ibrahim Adan, director of Moyale-based development group Cifa, nomads would look for signs of coming drought or rain in the stars, in the entrails of slaughtered animals or in minute changes in vegetation. "When drought came, elders would be sent miles away to negotiate grazing rights in places not so seriously hit, and cattle would be sent to relatives in distant communities. People would reduce the size of their herds, selling some and slaughtering the best to preserve the best meat to see them through the hard times. None of that is working now."

Francis Murambi, a development worker in Moyale, said: "The land has changed a lot. Only 60 years ago, the land around Moyale was savannah with plenty of grass, big trees and elephants, lions and rhino." Today the grasses have all but gone, taken over by brush. Because there are fewer pastures, they are more heavily used. It's a vicious circle. In the past, a nomadic family could live on a few cows which would provide more than enough milk and food. Now the pasture is so poor that those who still herd cattle need more animals to survive. But having more cattle further degrades the soil. The environment can support fewer and fewer people, but the population has increased.

"[Before] we did not need money. The pasture was good, the milk was good, and you could produce butter. Now it is poor, it is not possible," said Gurache Kate, a chief in Ossang Odana village near the Ethiopian border. "Yesterday I had a phone call from the man we sent our cattle away with. He is 250 miles away and he said they were all dying."

These shifts driven by climate change are bringing profound changes. Ibrahim Adan said: "The cow has always been your bank. Being a Borana means you must keep livestock. It's part of your identity and destiny. It gives you status. Traditionally livestock was central to life. The old people saw cattle as the centre of their culture. Pride, love and attachment to cattle was all celebrated in song. My father would never sell cattle. They were an extension of himself."

Now, for people like Isaac and Abdi, Alima and Muslima, all that is gone, and with it independence and self-sufficiency. "The money economy is creeping in, as is education and the settled life," said Adan. "Young people see the cow now as more of an economic necessity rather than the core of their culture."

The great unspoken fear among scientists and governments is that the present cycle of droughts continues and worsens, making the land uninhabitable. "This isn't something that will just affect Kenya. What is certain is that if climate change sets in and drought remains a frequent visitor, there will be far fewer people on the land in 20 years," said Adan. "The nomad will not go. But his life will be very different."

Link:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/03/climate-change-kenya-10-10